On paper, Tulsa County's September 2026 housing numbers look calm. The median sale price was $289,000, up 3.55% from $279,103 in September 2025. Months of supply was 3.42, almost unchanged from 3.44 a year earlier. The typical home sold for 98.95% of its list price, against 99.01% the year before. All of these figures come from the MLS Technology September 2026 Tulsa County report, which is compiled from Greater Tulsa Association of REALTORS® data.
Each of those averages blends two markets that are behaving very differently this fall. Below roughly $375,000, sellers still hold the stronger position. Above it, inventory is piling up, and the main sign of the slowdown doesn't appear in the published days-on-market figure. If you're comparing homes across Tulsa County right now, your price band tells you more about your negotiating position than any countywide average.
The Split Shows Up Near $375,000
At the end of September 2026, Tulsa County had 2,540 active residential listings. That is the highest September count in the report's five-year window and well above the five-year September average of 2,083. Broken out by asking price, that inventory falls into two groups:
| Active listing price, Sept. 2026 | Active listings | Months of supply | Median days on market, still active |
|---|---|---|---|
| $150,000 and under | 234 | 2.73 | 51.5 |
| $150,001 to $225,000 | 336 | 2.48 | 40.0 |
| $225,001 to $275,000 | 314 | 2.54 | 44.0 |
| $275,001 to $375,000 | 592 | 3.13 | 51.0 |
| $375,001 to $500,000 | 463 | 4.60 | 57.0 |
| $500,001 to $700,000 | 342 | 5.23 | 76.5 |
| $700,001 and up | 259 | 6.11 | 75.0 |
Every band at or below $375,000 has between about two and a half and three months of supply. Above $375,000 the figure jumps to 4.60 months, and it keeps climbing with price. Listings above $700,000 would take more than six months to sell out at the recent pace of sales.
House size shows the same split. In September, three-bedroom listings had 2.85 months of supply, while homes with five or more bedrooms had 5.08. In practice, the county's tight market is mostly three-bedroom homes in the middle price ranges. The looser market is the larger homes priced above them.
Why the Published Days-on-Market Figure Looks Short
The headline median of 22.5 days on market sounds fast, and it is accurate. It only counts homes that sold. The report uses slightly different price breakpoints for closed sales, but the top end tells a consistent story. In September, 77 homes priced above $575,000 closed, after a median of 29 days on market, at a median of 98.33% of list price. Their median sale price was $727,500.
Compare that with the homes still waiting. At the end of September, 601 listings were priced above $500,000. Their median time on market was about 75 days, more than double the time it took the sold homes to sell. Pending sales fall in between. The 66 homes priced above $600,000 that went under contract in September had a median of 56 days on market.
Taken together, these figures show that upper-tier homes that find a buyer still sell in about a month, at close to their list price. The homes that don't find a buyer stay on the market and push the active-inventory figures up, but they never show up in the closed-sale statistics most people quote. So a $600,000 listing that has been on the market for 70 days is typical for this fall. A $250,000 listing with the same history is unusual, because closed sales between $175,001 and $250,000 sold in a median of 19 days at 100% of list price.
The countywide median price keeps rising for a related reason. Most closings happen in the busy lower and middle bands, where prices are still firm, so slow-selling expensive homes don't pull the median down. The slowdown shows up in inventory and time on market rather than in the median price.
A Higher Rate Costs More on a Bigger Loan
Mortgage rates are the most likely reason the split begins near $375,000. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported this for the week of October 8, 2026:
"The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.40% as of October 8, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 7.28%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.30%."
A rise of about one percentage point affects every buyer, but the dollar cost grows with the size of the loan. Here is the standard payment formula applied to two illustrative 30-year loans, counting principal and interest only:
- $250,000 loan: about $1,547 a month at 6.30% and about $1,731 at 7.40%, roughly $184 more per month.
- $600,000 loan: about $3,714 a month at 6.30% and about $4,154 at 7.40%, roughly $440 more per month.
A buyer shopping at $600,000 has to absorb more than twice the monthly increase of a buyer at $250,000, and has fewer comparable homes to fall back on. That pressure lines up with the September pattern: firm prices where loan sizes are smaller, and growing supply where they are larger. Rates change weekly, so check the current Freddie Mac reading on the day you run your own numbers.
The month-to-month data points the same way. Tulsa County pending sales fell to 650 in September from 783 in August, a 16.99% drop, while active inventory grew 3.46% over the same month. Fewer new contracts and more listings mean more months of supply, and the report itself expects that pressure to keep building.
Reading a Listing by Its Price Band
Once you know which market a home is in, the same listing details mean different things:
- Under about $375,000: With 2.5 to 3.1 months of supply and closed sales near 100% of list in the middle bands, a well-presented home can still draw quick interest. A long time on market in this range usually points to something about the specific property, not to the market as a whole.
- $375,000 to $500,000: At 4.60 months of supply, this band is shifting. Buyers have more homes to compare, and sellers are competing with the listings priced just above them.
- Above $500,000: Supply runs above five months and unsold listings have a median of about 75 days on market, so time is on the buyer's side when comparing homes. The 98.33% sale-to-list ratio on upper-tier closings also shows that sellers whose homes do sell are not taking deep discounts.
If you're a move-up seller, you are probably in both markets at once, selling in the tighter tier and buying in the looser one. That can work in your favor, and it makes the order in which you list and make offers matter more. Our guide to pricing a Tulsa home covers the selling side in more detail.
FAQ
Do these numbers cover the city of Tulsa or all of Tulsa County?
They cover all of Tulsa County, including the parts of Broken Arrow, Jenks, Bixby and Owasso that fall inside it. The report does not break out individual cities. For neighborhood-level context, see our Tulsa neighborhood page.
Does the rest of the metro look the same?
Months of supply is similar across the region. The September 2026 report for the seven-county Tulsa MSA shows 4,020 active listings, 3.57 months of supply and a median sale price of $286,000. In the same month, Wagoner County had 3.95 months of supply and a $295,000 median, and Rogers County had 3.47 months and a $324,000 median.
Is Tulsa County a buyer's market now?
It depends on the price band. At 3.42 months of supply countywide, the September figures do not describe a buyer's market overall. Above $500,000, buyers had noticeably more choice and more time this fall than buyers in the entry and middle ranges.
The payment examples above are general illustrations, not financial advice. Your rate, loan terms and budget should come from a licensed lender who knows your situation.
If you plan to sell an upper-tier home this fall, the first question is whether your listing will be one of the homes that sells in about a month or one of the 601 still waiting at the end of September. The Bradshaw Group can show you where your home falls within its price band, using the latest monthly numbers for that band rather than the countywide average. Start with a free home valuation.
